A flurry of diplomatic activity in the last week at the UN but that does not bring peace…

• 07-Oct-24
• admin

The 79th Session of the UN General Assembly opened on Tuesday 10 Sep 2024. The first day of the high level General Debate happened on last Tuesday 24 September 2024 and will continue through to Saturday, 28 September and conclude on Monday 30 Sep.
 

The wars that are being waged in the world, which are contrary to the aspirations of the UN Charter, found its proponents ironically making their way to New York to make their case to the world. Needless to say, none of these have anything new for us to pay attention to. These were the views of war mongers. As a matter of fact, what was not said, and who did not make a fuss, like Putin of Russia, are probably more cogent. And there were of course the talks on the sidelines, as typically would be the case at all international meetings of this sort, where the real deals are being hammered out. There was no exception last week.
 

The war in Ukraine, ostensibly portrayed as Russian aggression by the collective west without consideration of how it came about, was the subject of such meetings. Zelenskyy went to the US to seek audience with Biden, Harris and Trump to present a “victory plan”. It was more just a wish list…
 

The following comments on the “victory plan”, was detailed by the Ukrainian newspaper , the Kyiv Independent as, which we should expect to be full of propaganda and exaggerations :

What we know about the ‘victory plan’ Zelensky presented to Biden
Though full details have not been revealed yet, the plan has been presented by Zelensky as a bit to force Russia into peace talks and a fair resolution
By the Kyiv Independent:
 

September 26, 2024 4:39 PM
 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky presented the victory plan to his U.S. counterpart Joe Biden at the White House on Sept. 26, a potentially pivotal moment in the long-running saga of Washington's support for Ukraine.
 

Zelensky, who is visiting the U.S. this week, has said that the plan is designed to push Russian President Vladimir Putin into a “fair” peace agreement by boosting Ukraine’s firepower and giving it an upper hand two and a half years into Russia’s full-scale invasion. Zelensky has not publicly specified how it will achieve this.

Here's what we know so far…
 

The timing
The announcement that Kyiv was preparing a “victory plan” came as Ukraine lost momentum following its surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast. The ongoing operation, the first significant invasion of Russian territory since World War II, was treated as a terrorist operation by the Kremlin and Putin.
 

It was supposed to expose Russia’s inability to defend its own territory and challenged Putin’s so-called "red lines" aimed at deterring Ukraine’s Western allies from stepping up weaponry supplies. It also showed Ukraine's backers that Kyiv could still seize the initiative on the battlefield. After nearly a month, the Ukrainian forces are reported to being rounded up in a remote corner of Russia near Sudja, a small town of 5000 souls.
 

As well as the attempt in the Kursk operation, events in the U.S. could also be a big factor in Kyiv's push to present the plan — the November U.S. presidential election that might bring former President Donald Trump back to the White House and jeopardize the U.S. support for Ukraine.
 

The content
The fine details of the plan are yet to be made public. It is expected to address military, political, diplomatic, and economic strategies.
 

A source close to Zelensky told the Kyiv Independent last week that it aims "to create such conditions and such an atmosphere that Russia will no longer be able to ignore the peace formula and the peace summit."
 

But some elements have been revealed. The head of the Presidential Office Andriy Yermak earlier this week said that an invitation to join NATO is part of the plan.
 

According to the information obtained by the Kyiv Independent on Sept. 22, Ukraine would ask for NATO membership within the months, not years.
 

Speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, Yermak also said that the five-point victory plan includes both diplomatic and military components.
 

"I also urged our partners to ignore Russia's threats of escalation," he said.
One element certain to be in the plan is the U.S. and other allies' approval for Ukraine to use long-range weapons including Western-provided missiles to target military sites deep inside Russia.

Kyiv has long been pushing for restrictions to be lifted as it would enable Ukraine to destroy the airfields from which Russian aircraft are taking off to attack Ukrainian civilian infrastructure as well as degrade Russian air defenses.
 

And we also know one thing that won't be in the plan – a partial ceasefire.
 

After a German media report suggested otherwise, Zelensky personally refuted the claim.
 

"There is not and cannot be any alternative to peace, no freezing of the war or any other manipulations that will simply move Russian aggression to another stage," Zelensky said in his evening address on Sept. 18.
 

How has it gone down so far?
 

The first reports aren't too positive.
 

The White House is concerned that Zelensky's plan lacks a clear strategy to win against Russia, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Sept. 25, citing U.S. and European officials.
 

Some officials familiar with the plan's outlines said it focuses too heavily on requesting more weapons and lifting restrictions on long-range missile strikes.
 

"I'm unimpressed, there's not much new there," one senior official told the WSJ.

White House officials are worried that Zelensky's plan does not offer clear, actionable steps that Biden can support in his four remaining months in office, the WSJ reported.
 

U.S. and European officials told the WSJ that parts of the plan remain underdeveloped, and that requests related to weapons are the most specific and detailed.
 

What happens if Biden rejects the plan?
 

"That's a horrible thought," Zelensky said when asked this question by The New Yorker in an interview, published on Sept. 22.
 

"It would mean that Biden doesn't want to end the war in any way that denies Russia a victory," he said.

"And we would end up with a very long war—an impossible, exhausting situation that would kill a tremendous number of people. Having said that, I can't blame Biden for anything," Zelensky added.
 

Specifically, Zelensky was seeking four things from the Biden White House:

1)  He asked for still more money (this has been totally anticipated for a very long time – this is a bankrupt country wanting to “win” against a neighbour which is a lot more powerful and with the natural resources needed by the rest of the world, which can sustain it forever);
2)  He pressed for still more weapons (again this is a country choosing to fight a war and in fact provoked it by siding with NATO but it has no production capability to sustain its military operations It is fighting with weapons acquired on charity – how sustainable is this?);
3)  He asked for permission from the US shoot missiles at targets deep inside Russia; and
4)  He wanted to be admitted to NATO immediately.
 

Well, to cut to the chase, he got almost nothing from the Americans.

Biden in his usual political and untruthful response, told Zelenskyy that he would ‘surge’ monetary aid to Ukraine. This was dishonest. It was said to make Biden look generous but in fact, it was a bullshit line. He gave Ukraine the rest of the US$61 billion that had been promised to Kyiv in the last congressional appropriation and nothing more. As we remember it, the bulk of the $61b (probably $40b) were allocated to be used in the US by the weapons contractors to replace stocks that were already drawn down in the six months prior to congressional approval. Most of that money had been used, and only about $8 billion were left. Well, Biden, with a sleigh of hand, called this a “surge” of support and gave it to Kyiv. It again proves the point that American politicians are duplicitous and cannot be trusted.

On the request for support of more weapons, nothing was said. This is largely because the US has nothing more to give. All that Zelensky got was an artillery shell signed by the governor of Pennsylvania, who accompanied him to visit the only shell production facility in the US. I reckon the Russians would be scared by the signatures.
 

The third request which is considered an escalation likely to provoke Russian retaliation, has been flatly turned down since about a week ago when it was first brought up by UK PM Keir Stamer who wanted the Americans to approve the use of their technology in targeting the missiles. The Department of Defence and the intelligence agencies were wisely dead set against it and if they had complied with the Ukrainian request, the act would likely have brought about the onset of WW3. Nobody wanted that and the denial of the request is not about lack of support for Ukraine but a reflection of the utterly callous demand by Zelenskyy being shot down by more intelligent people.
 

On the demand by Zelenskyy to be admitted to NATO, there was no enthusiasm on the part of the Americans or the Europeans to take on the Russians in a wider conflict over something which everybody knows was provoked by NATO since their relentless eastward expansion since 1992 and accelerated from 2014. The Americans who would have to bear the brunt of fighting the Russians under Article 5 of the NATO treaty do not want to entertain the thought of body bags shipped stateside. And the Europeans have already said Ukrainians would not become part of NATO in spite of further statements that continue to lead Kyiv up the primrose path.
 

Therefore, effectively Zelensky got zip. Nothing. All he got, which is still important to him, is that the Americans still accept that he is the leader of the Ukrainian government, and that is likely to enable him to keep his life, as there are already opposition forces in Ukraine who look dimly at his handling the war, which has been a bloody disaster. The remaining $8 billion is a bullshit gesture and when this runs out in another few months, it may be the end of US largesse to give money again.
 

The New York Times published this article on the matter after Biden turned down UK PM Keir Stamer’s request to have US permission to allow Ukraine to use long range missiles to hit Russia. The fact that the influential NYT published this article on the question, is a reflection of US intelligence agencies being dead set against the idea:
 

Should Ukraine Launch Western Weapons Deep Into Russia?
President Biden has refused to allow Ukraine to use long-range Western missiles on Russian military targets, but he appears to be wavering.
By Lara Jakes NYT
 

Sept. 12, 2024

A deadly uptick of Russian guided glide bombs slamming into Ukrainian cities — as many as 800 in a single week this summer — has injected new urgency into a long-running debate over whether Ukraine should be allowed to launch missiles supplied by the West at military targets deep in Russian territory.

Amid signs that President Biden is wavering, the issue will be on the table when he meets in Washington on Friday with Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain, after the two leaders dispatched their top diplomats to Kyiv on Wednesday to hear out the latest pleas from Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky.
 

Ukraine has for months asked to use Western long-range weapons to attack more of the military sites that Russia uses to launch missiles and house the warplanes that drop the large, free-fall glide bombs that are wreaking havoc on Ukrainian forces and cities.
 

This past spring, Mr. Biden put specific limits — around 60 miles — on how far Ukraine can fire American-made weapons into Russia, leery of spurring a harsh retaliation from President Vladimir V. Putin.
U.S. officials said Britain and France, which gave Ukraine long-range, air-launched “bunker busters” in 2023, appear to be waiting for Mr. Biden’s endorsement before allowing those European missiles to hit targets far into Russian territory. The officials, like other U.S. officials interviewed for this article, requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about the issue.
 

Mr. Putin’s spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, warned on Wednesday that Russia was preparing “appropriate countermeasures” should the West extend Ukraine’s authority, RIA Novosti, a Russian state-run news agency, reported.
 

But earlier presumed provocations that the Biden administration resisted — including sending Western tanks and F-16s to the fight, as well as Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk, a Russian border region — have not prompted a Russian retaliation against NATO.
 

And Mr. Zelensky is now pushing for the permissions on a near-daily basis.
“Terror can be reliably stopped only in one way: by strikes on Russian military airfields, on their bases, on the logistics of Russian terror,” Mr. Zelensky said on Sunday. “We have to achieve this.”
 

Mr. Biden is also facing pressure in American foreign policy circles to loosen the restrictions. Senior American military planners no longer advise against doing so, and high-ranking former U.S. diplomats and generals urged him in a letter on Tuesday to “let Ukraine defend itself.”
 

The chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Ben Cardin, Democrat of Maryland, noted the recent escalation in Russian airstrikes on Wednesday. “The time has come to ease restrictions on Ukrainians’ use of U.S.-provided weapons,” he said.
But another U.S. official cautioned that no imminent change in the restrictions was expected. And, ultimately, the decision rests with Mr. Biden.
 

“We’re working that out right now,” Mr. Biden told reporters on Tuesday.
Here is how Ukraine could use that broader authority.

“Attack ’ems”

Right now, it appears Mr. Biden is weighing whether to allow Ukraine to fire the American-made surface-to-surface Army Tactical Missile Systems — known as ATACMS, or “attack ’ems” — into Russia.
 

The United States first gave Kyiv the ATACMS, which have a range of about 190 miles, last year. But as of yet, they are not among the limited weapons that the Biden administration is allowing Ukraine to launch into Russia.
In May, Mr. Biden reluctantly agreed to let Ukraine fire some U.S.-supplied weapons, like artillery, into Russia to target military bases that were used to launch attacks on the Ukrainian border, including against the city of Kharkiv. That authority extended about 60 miles.
 

But U.S. and European military officials now say Russia has since moved 90 percent of the air bases that house its bomber jets out of the range that ATACMS could reach, in anticipation that they will soon be fired over the border.
 

“A missed chance to attack them, when they were still in range,” said Col. Markus Reisner, who oversees force development at Austria’s main military training academy and closely follows how weapons are being used in the war in Ukraine.
 

Experts say the ATACMS could also target Russian ground-based air-defense systems that threaten Ukraine’s nascent fleet of F-16 fighter jets.
 

F-16s
The first tranche of American-made F-16s — Ukraine will not say how many, but believed to number around a dozen — arrived this summer. While Ukrainian officials say they will initially be used for air defense, like shooting down incoming Russian cruise missiles, it is expected the F-16s will also fly combat missions.When used in a ground-attack role, the fighter jets have a range of about 500 miles, according to the Air Force.
 

The F-16s could play a crucial role against the guided glide bombs that have pummeled population centers and military posts in eastern Ukraine. Experts said that Ukraine wants to use the F-16s to intercept Russian warplanes to prevent them from releasing the glide bombs.
 

The glide bombs, many of which are old warheads that have been refitted with pop-out wings and satellite navigation systems, are dropped dozens of miles from the border — outside the reach of Ukraine’s short-range surface-to-air missiles.
 

But it remains unclear whether Ukraine will fly the F-16s into Russian territory, and the NATO countries that donated the jets are divided over whether they should.

But if they were to cross the border, they could target Russian aircraft with medium-range missiles known as AMRAAMs that the United States has already sent to Ukraine. Depending on the model, AMRAAMS can be fired both from an airborne F-16 and a ground-based air-defense launching system. According to the Air Force, the missiles can reach targets more than 30 miles away.
 

JASSMs, Storm Shadows and SCALPs
The Biden administration is also poised to give Ukraine air-launched cruise missiles that can be used with the F-16s. The weapons, Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles, or JASSMs, are older models, but they have a range of about 230 miles and carry a 1,000-pound warhead. They could strike targets — like air bases and ammunition depots — deep into Russian territory without leaving Ukrainian airspace.
 

But a U.S. official said that even if the U.S. decided to send JASSMs to Ukraine, they would not be delivered for months. And it remains unclear if the Biden administration would allow the JASSMs to be launched into Russia, as opposed to Crimea and other parts of Ukraine that are controlled by Russia.
 

Britain and France have already sent Ukraine their own air-launched cruise missiles that, so far, have struck Russian targets in Crimea and in the Black Sea. They have a range of about 155 miles and have been fired from Ukraine’s aging fleet of Soviet-era and Russian-designed fighter jets. Virtually the same model of missile, they are known as Storm Shadows in Britain and SCALPs in France.
 

Ukraine is already able to strike deep inside Russia using domestically produced drones and is testing a new long-range surface-to-surface missile that can be fired without asking the West’s permission. That domestic production capability has been one reason the Biden administration has resisted allowing American weapons to be used for those attacks.
 

Yet when it comes to combating the glide bombs in particular, American officials and experts said that Ukraine will need to strike deep into Russia with a mix of fighter jets and ground-based air systems — nearly all of which will require Western approval.
 

“As Ukraine gains new Western arms and technologies, it can better address the threat,” John Hoehn and William Courtney, munitions experts and former U.S. officials, wrote in an analysis for the RAND Corporation in June. “But the West will also need to show more flexibility in the conditions it sets for Ukraine’s use of advanced weaponry.”
 

Just yesterday, the NYT augmented the article published earlier with a more definitive one:

US intelligence warns of risks in permitting Ukraine's long-range strikes, NYT reports
Olena Goncharova
Fri, September 27, 2024 at 9:28 AM GMT+8·2 min read
 

U.S. intelligence agencies have cautioned that Russia may respond with increased force, potentially including lethal attacks on the U.S. and its allies, if Ukraine is allowed to use long-range missiles supplied by the U.S., U.K., and France for strikes deep into Russian territory, the New York Times reported.
 

The news outlet cited a previously unreported assessment that also downplays the strategic impact these long-range missiles might have on the war, mentioning Ukraine's limited supply and the uncertainty over how many more Western nations may provide those missiles.
 

The analysis underscores the significant risks and uncertain benefits of the decision, which now lies with President Joe Biden, following his meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House on Sept. 26.
 

The difficulty in President Biden's decision-making on Ukraine's request for long-range missiles is partly rooted in concerns highlighted by U.S. intelligence, American officials told the New York Times. Zelensky has been pushing both publicly and privately to gain permission to target Russian territory with the advanced missiles.
 

Vladimir Putin has regularly used threats to deter the U.S. and its allies from sending more sophisticated weaponry to Ukraine. Critics argue that Biden’s administration has been overly cautious, claiming their slow, incremental approach to arming Ukraine has hurt their performance on the battlefield. On the other hand, supporters of the current strategy point to its effectiveness in avoiding major Russian retaliation, though they admit this balance may now be at risk.
 

The intelligence assessment outlines a range of potential Russian reactions if the U.S. and European nations authorize Ukraine to carry out long-range strikes with their supplied missiles. These responses could include increased acts of sabotage and arson targeting infrastructure across Europe, and even potentially lethal attacks on military installations belonging to the U.S. and its allies.
According to U.S. officials, most of the sabotage in Europe so far has been orchestrated by Russia’s military intelligence agency (GRU). If Putin opts to escalate this covert campaign in response to missile strikes deep inside Russian territory, officials believe the Kremlin would likely continue to operate in the shadows, avoiding direct and open attacks on U.S. and European military facilities to prevent triggering a broader conflict.

The war between the Israelis and Hamas/Hezbollah has escalated. Added to the conflict in the Ukraine, this is going to become WW3. And we will all die from the nuclear Armageddon that ensues. Why all these fuckers in these countries continue to escalate the conflict is beyond comprehension, but if you listen to anyone speak individually, you might even think that they have a point. Tune to Piers Morgan on Youtube and listen to one of these hate filled diatribes and you will know what I mean. In one of these, I actually heard a prominent New York-Jewish lawyer in the program call the pager attack a “proportionate response” by the Israelis. How fucked up is this attitude that calls for killing of innocent civilians, including women and children, when the state-sponsored terrorist attack some ten days ago has already been condemned by various international organizations as a war crime?

First, here is an update on what is going on along the borders of Lebanon, as reported by ABC News:
 

Israel launches strikes on Hezbollah in wake of device explosions
Thirty-two Hezbollah members (as well as thousands of civilians were also victims) were killed in device blasts, the group said.
 

ByDavid Brennan and Nadine El-Bawab
 

September 20, 2024, 5:18 AM
 

Israel launches airstrikes in Lebanon
Israel launched a series of strikes on Hezbollah targets as the war against the Lebanon-based Hezbollah...Show More

LONDON -- Israel launched a series of strikes on Hezbollah targets Thursday as the war against the Lebanon-based group widened in the wake of two consecutive days of deadly explosions triggered in wireless devices.
 

Israel said it has carried out hundreds of strikes in Lebanon on Thursday. Earlier, Israel said it hit at least 30 Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, including a weapons storage facility, adding it will continue to "operate against the threat of the Hezbollah."

Israel had hand in manufacturing pagers that exploded in Lebanon: Source
Dozens of people have been killed in the pager attacks.
By Josh Margolin

September 20, 2024, 4:24 AM
 

Israel had a hand in the manufacturing of pagers that exploded on Hezbollah operatives this week, with this type of "supply chain interdiction" operation having been planned for at least 15 years, a U.S. intelligence source confirmed to ABC News.
 

The CIA has long been reluctant to employ this tactic because the risk to innocents was too high, the source said.
 

Planning for the attack involved shell companies, with multiple layers of Israeli intelligence officers and their assets fronting a legitimate company that produced the pagers, the source confirmed to ABC News, with at least some of those doing the work unaware of who they were actually working for.
Israel's hand in the manufacturing was first reported by The New York Times.
 

One to two ounces of explosives and a remote trigger switch to set off the blast were planted in the pagers, according to the sources.
 

The last two days of explosions in Lebanon, triggered remotely with explosives inside pagers or walkie-talkies, have killed at least 37 people and wounded 2,931, according to Lebanese Health Minister Firass Al-Abyad.
 

The conflict between Hezbollah and Israel grew wider on Thursday, with Israel launching strikes on Lebanon and Hezbollah returning fire.
 

ABC News has reached out to BAC Consulting -- the Hungary-based company contracted to produce the pagers on behalf of Gold Apollo in Taiwan -- but neither company has responded to our repeated requests.
 

The pagers were never in Hungary and the company was "a trading intermediary, with no manufacturing or operational site in Hungary," a spokesperson for the Hungarian government told ABC News on Wednesday.
 

In a speech Thursday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said the group's top leadership had old pagers, not the new ones used in the attack, which were reportedly shipped in the last six months. The group has begun a full investigation into the explosions.
 

"Not all of the pagers had been distributed and some of them were turned off," Nasrallah said.

"Over two days, the enemy wanted to kill at least 5,000 people. ... The enemy knew that the pager devices numbered 4,000," he added.
 

20 more dead, 450 injured as new round of explosions rocks Lebanon: Health officials
Israel was responsible for the pagers blowing up, sources told ABC News.
ByDavid Brennan and Nadine El-Bawab
September 19, 2024, 6:01 AM
 

New round of deadly explosions rocks Lebanon
At least 20 more people were killed and 450 injured in Lebanon on Wednesday after a series of new explosions rocked Beirut.

LONDON -- At least 20 more people were killed and 450 injured in Lebanon on Wednesday after a series of new explosions of wireless devices rocked the South, the Bekaa and the southern suburbs of Beirut, according to the Ministry of Health and the Lebanese Red Cross.
 

Ten Hezbollah members were among those killed on Wednesday, the group confirmed.
 

More than 30 ambulances are providing treatment and evacuations to wounded people in Lebanon on Wednesday, the Lebanese Red Cross said. At least 95 people injured in the Wednesday explosions have been transferred to Iran for medical treatment, according to emergency officials in Lebanon.
 

The Lebanese Army command has asked citizens not to gather in places witnessing security incidents to allow medical teams to arrive.
 

Members of the Lebanese Civil Defense are working to extinguish fires that broke out inside homes, cars and shops in the Bekaa, the South, Mount Lebanon and the southern suburbs due to the explosions, officials said.
 

All walkie-talkie devices were taken from security services members at the Rafiq Harir International Airport in Beirut after news of the devices exploding.
 

Pagers explode across Lebanon on Tuesday
At least 12 civilians were killed and at least 2,800 people injured in the explosions that took place Tuesday, according to Lebanese authorities. Around 460 of the injuries were critical and required surgery, Lebanese Health Minister Firass Abiad said. Most victims are suffering from eye and facial injuries, while others suffered injuries to hands and fingers, he said.
 

Israel was behind the deadly explosion of pagers across Lebanon on Tuesday, sources told ABC News on Wednesday.
 

There was about 1 to 2 ounces of explosives in each of the pagers that exploded Tuesday, according to a source familiar with the attacks.
 

The Hezbollah militant group said it is conducting a "security and scientific investigation" into the explosion of pagers across Lebanon on Tuesday.
 

Hezbollah said 11 of its members were killed on Tuesday, though -- as is typical in its statements -- did not specify how they died.
 

"We hold the Israeli enemy fully responsible for this criminal aggression, which also targeted civilians and led to the deaths of a number of martyrs and the injury of a large number with various wounds," Hezbollah said of the pager explosions in a Tuesday statement.
 

In a Wednesday morning statement, Hezbollah said it would continue operations to "support Gaza," and vowed a "reckoning" for Israel for the "massacre on Tuesday."
 

The dead and injured included people who are not members of Hezbollah. Lebanese officials said that an 8-year-old girl and an 11-year-old boy are among the dead.
 

At least 14 people were also injured in targeted attacks on Hezbollah members in Syria on Tuesday, according to the Syrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
 

Around 100 hospitals received wounded people, the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health said, with hospitals in Beirut and its southern suburb quickly filling to capacity. Patients were then directed to other hospitals outside the region.
 

The Iranian ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani, was among those who had one of the pagers and was injured in an explosion Tuesday, according to the Iranian ambassador to the United Nations.
 

The diplomat said in a phone call that he was "feeling well and fully conscious," according to Iranian state TV.

"I am proud and honored that my blood has become one with the blood of the honorable Lebanese people, as a result of the horrific terrorist crime that targeted our brotherly Lebanon yesterday. This noble country has stood with dignity and pride since the first day of al-Aqsa Storm," Amani said Wednesday.
 

The Iranian ambassador to the U.N., Amir Saeid Iravani, called the alleged Israeli attack an act of a "terrorist nature, aimed at escalating tensions in the region."
 

"The Islamic Republic of Iran will duly follow up on the attack against its ambassador in Lebanon, which resulted in his injury, and reserves its rights under international law to take required measures deemed necessary to respond to such a heinous crime and violation," the ambassador wrote in a letter to the U.N. secretary-general, the president of the U.N. Security Council and the president of the U.N. General Assembly on Wednesday while calling on them to condemn the attack.
 

Fears grow of Israel-Hezbollah escalation
The alleged Israeli operation has again piqued fears of escalation in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict ongoing since Oct. 8, when members of the Iranian-backed group began cross-border attacks in support of Hamas' war with Israel in the Gaza Strip.
 

Frontier skirmishes, Israeli strikes and Hezbollah rocket and artillery salvoes have been near-constant through 11 months of war in Gaza. Israeli officials have repeatedly threatened to launch a new military operation against Hezbollah along the Israel-Lebanon border. Tens of thousands of Israelis have left their homes in border regions due to the fighting.
 

The Israel Defense Forces said warplanes hit Hezbollah targets in six locations in southern Lebanon overnight into Wednesday. Artillery strikes were also conducted, it added.
 

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is due to make a public address on Thursday afternoon to address the situation. In February, Nasrallah urged members to stop using their cellphones, describing the technology as "a deadly agent."
 

Schools across Lebanon were closed on Wednesday, Lebanese state media reported, citing the country's Minister of Education. Schools and offices closed included public and private schools, high schools, technical institutes, the Lebanese University and private higher education institutions, Lebanese state media reported.

The Lebanese Council of Ministers collectively condemned "this criminal Israeli aggression, which constitutes a serious violation of Lebanese sovereignty and a crime by all standards."
 

It added that "the government immediately began making all necessary contacts with the countries concerned and the United Nations to place it before its responsibilities regarding this continuing crime."
World reacts to pager attacks
 

The U.N. special coordinator for Lebanon condemned the attack on Lebanon, calling it an "extremely concerning escalation in what is an already unacceptably volatile context," in a statement released by the U.N. Office of the Spokesperson for the Secretary General.
 

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said during a press conference in Egypt on Wednesday that the U.S. "did not know about and was not involved" in Israel's pager attacks in Lebanon and Syria -- but said that officials were still gathering information and did not directly blame Israel.
 

"Broadly speaking, we've been very clear, and we remain very clear about the importance of all parties avoiding any steps that could further escalate the conflict that we're trying to resolve in Gaza," Blinken said. Its spread to other fronts, he added, is "clearly not in the interest of anyone involved."
 

A cease-fire deal in Gaza, Blinken added, would "materially improve the prospects of defusing the situation" on the Israeli-Lebanese border and allow thousands of people living near the area on both sides of the divide to return home.
 

National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby also told reporters that the U.S. was not involved in Tuesday's or Wednesday's incidents "in any way."
 

"We still don't want to see an escalation of any kind," he said. "We still believe that the best way to prevent escalation, to prevent another front from opening up in Lebanon, is through diplomacy."
 

The U.S. and the European Union have both designated the Hezbollah militant group a foreign terrorist organization.
 

ABC News' Luis Martinez, Shannon K. Kingston, Ghazi Balkiz, Morgan Winsor, Anne Flaherty, Nasser Atta, Joe Simonetti, Jordana Miller and Helena Skinner contributed to this report.

"The IDF is currently striking Hezbollah targets in Lebanon to degrade Hezbollah’s terrorist capabilities and infrastructure," the Israeli army said Thursday afternoon. "The Hezbollah terrorist organization has turned southern 

Lebanon into a combat zone. For decades, Hezbollah has weaponized civilian homes, dug tunnels beneath them, and used civilians as human shields."
 

Israel also instructed residents in the north to reduce movements, avoid gatherings and stay near shelters and protected areas.
 

Two large sonic booms shook buildings in Beirut on Thursday as Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah delivered a speech on this week's device explosions. The IDF strikes come as Nasrallah said the use of the devices in civilian areas crossed all laws and red lines.
 

"This criminal act is a major terrorist operation, an act of genocide and massacre and amounts to a declaration of war," Nasrallah said.
 

"The only way to return the displaced to the north is to stop the aggression on the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. What you are doing will increase the displacement of the displaced from the north and will remove the opportunity for their return," Nasrallah said.
 

The last two days of explosions in Lebanon, triggered remotely with explosives inside pagers or walkie-talkies, have killed at least 37 people and wounded 2,931, Lebanese Health Minister Firass Al-Abyad said in a press conference Thursday.
 

Prior to announcing the strikes, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu restated his intention of returning tens of thousands of displaced Israelis to their homes in the north of the country, parts of which have been emptied by the threat of Hezbollah attacks.
 

Two IDF soldiers were killed by Hezbollah rockets in the north on Thursday, the army said.
 

"This is a new phase of the war, it includes opportunities but also significant risks. Hezbollah feels that it is being persecuted and the sequence of military and defense actions will continue," Israel Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Thursday following the airstrikes.
 

The Israeli rhetoric was punctuated by the two waves of explosions in Lebanon.

Pager devices exploded on Tuesday prompting chaos in the capital Beirut and across the Hezbollah militant group's southern heartland. On Wednesday, walkie-talkies exploded, some during funeral processions being held for militants killed in Tuesday's explosions.
 

An ABC News source confirmed that Israel was behind the Tuesday pager attacks. Israeli leaders have not publicly commented on either round of explosions.
 

The Lebanese Health Ministry said 12 people were killed and 2,323 wounded in Tuesday's pager detonations, and another 25 people were killed and 608 wounded in Wednesday's walkie-talkie blasts, according to Al-Abyad.
 

The Lebanese health minister told reporters that he does not want to comment on security and political matters, but he said "it is certain that what happened in terms of aggression is considered a war crime, as the majority of the injuries were recorded in civilian areas and not in the battlefield, and the government is doing its duty and has called for a meeting of the U.N. Security Council, and human rights organizations are doing their duty on this issue."
 

Hezbollah said 20 of its members were killed in Wednesday's walkie-talkie explosions. Another 11 were killed in Tuesday's pager explosions in Lebanon and Syria, bringing the overall death toll for the group to 31.
 

The Iranian-backed group blamed Israel for both waves of explosions and vowed a "reckoning."
 

The militant group claimed several retaliatory strikes into Israel this week -- including on Thursday morning -- with Israel Defense Forces warplanes and artillery responding.
 

Cross-border fire has been near-constant since Oct. 8, when Hezbollah began attacks in protest of the Israel Defense Forces operation into the Gaza Strip -- the response to Hamas' Oct. 7 infiltration attack into southern Israel.
 

But as Gallant told reporters on Wednesday, "I believe that we are at the onset of a new phase in this war."
 

A source confirmed to ABC News on Wednesday that Israel's 98th Division is being deployed from Gaza battlefields to the north of the country.
 

"We are determined to change the security reality as soon as possible," Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin, head of the IDF's Northern Command, said. "The commitment of the commanders and the troops here is complete, with peak readiness for any task that will be required."
 

The war, U.S. officials have long warned, could spiral into a broader conflict involving Iran -- a prime benefactor of both Hezbollah and Hamas.
 

Notable casualties demonstrated the multinational nature of the crisis. A detonating pager injured at least 14 people in Syria, where both Hezbollah and Iranian forces have been active for several years in support of its President Bashar al-Assad.
 

Iran's ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amini, was also among the thousands injured, Iranian officials said. Tehran "will duly follow up on the attack against its ambassador in Lebanon," the country's ambassador to the United Nations said in a letter to U.N. leaders on Wednesday.
 

Israel and Iran have already exchanged significant strikes since Oct. 7. Israel assassinated a top Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps commander Mohammad Reza Zahedi in Syria in April and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July. Iran fired a huge barrage of drones and missiles toward Israel in response to Zahedi's killing.
 

This week's bombings in Lebanon raised the possibility of further action, whether overt or covert. Police announced on Thursday that an Israeli citizen was arrested on suspicion of working with Iranian intelligence to assassinate leaders including Netanyahu and Gallant.
 

Secretary of State Antony Blinken reiterated U.S. appeals for calm during a press conference in Egypt on Wednesday, where he traveled for fresh Gaza cease-fire talks.
 

"Broadly speaking, we've been very clear, and we remain very clear about the importance of all parties avoiding any steps that could further escalate the conflict that we're trying to resolve in Gaza," Blinken said.
 

A conflict spreading to other fronts, he added, is "clearly not in the interest of anyone involved."
 

The U.S., Blinken and other American officials said, were not involved in or pre-briefed on the remote explosions that rocked Lebanon on Tuesday and Wednesday.
 

Gallant spoke with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin three times in two days, the latest conversation on Wednesday reaffirming the "unwavering U.S. support for Israel in the face of threats from Iran, Lebanese Hezbollah, and Iran's other regional partners" and the need for de-escalation, a Pentagon readout said.

U.S. officials were notified by Israeli counterparts on Tuesday that they were planning an operation against Hezbollah, but did not provide any details about what they were going to do, U.S. officials said.
 

ABC News' Ghazi Balkiz, Will Gretsky, Morgan Winsor, Luis Martinez, Shannon K. Kingston, Ellie Kaufman, Nasser Atta, Jordana Miller and Marcus Moore contributed to this report.
 

The world is now veering dangerously close to a global conflict, with the NATO countries wanting to take on Russia and China, and the Middle East on a trajectory to fight Iran which is also in BRICS. There is no guarantee that the conflict will end soon, and if they continue, there is a risk of a nuclear accident. Should that ever happen, that outcome will kill all of us, even if we are not involved in the sad chest thumping exercise. The only decent news that I can see is that ordinary citizens in Europe and America are not buying the lies that are being promulgated by their political class, and we should see these callous people thrown out of office before they do real harm to the world. But until that happens, we will all have to worry about hiding in underground shelters when these fools threaten nuclear war, or ignore the dangers of one, and try to call the bluff of the opposite side when they warn against existential threats with their own existential threats.

By:

Wai Cheong

The writer has been in financial services for more than forty years. He graduated with First Class Honours in Economics and Statistics, winning a prize in 1976 for being top student for the whole university in his year. He also holds an MBA with Honors from the University of Chicago. He is a Chartered Financial Analyst.